Forecast Methodology
How we build analysis.
AWA is an independent weather publication. We combine observational data, numerical weather prediction, pattern recognition, and expert forecasting judgment.
What goes into an AWA analysis
- Observational context: surface observations, radar, satellite, and regional climatology when relevant
- Model guidance: comparing deterministic and ensemble signals, noting agreement and disagreement
- Pattern recognition: synoptic setup, moisture transport, instability, and steering flow
- Forecast confidence: we state uncertainty plainly when the signal is mixed or timing is sensitive
- Impacts: translating meteorological reasoning into clear consequences for people and places
What we do not do
We do not republish raw model output as a finished forecast, and we do not manufacture urgency for engagement. When confidence is low, we say so.
Corrections
If an analysis needs correction after publication, we update the piece and document material changes on our Corrections Policy page.