Discussion:  We have been monitoring the pattern for tropical activity down south.  At this time of year, it is crucial that storms down south develop into stronger hurricanes.  This ensures that the ridge over the four corners is affected on the southwest side to produce 'kinks' in the upper flow, disturbing it enough to bring easterly waves through the region.

Such patterns have given the Southwestern United States severe storms within the monsoon flow that would be established.  Confidence is rising that this first round will follow this route.

At the current time, Tropical Storm Douglas is moving out to sea further between Hawaii and the mainland.  This system is 1000 miles away from the mainland.  This will not affect us much other than push the ridge into the four corners region due to affecting the southwest periphery.

Latest satellite images show a pile of thunderstorms spanning across Central America.  This is where Elida will be born.  As this group moves to the northwest off the Mexican coast, it will enter the development zone around July 8th.  This system will then be named Elida, which will move northwest to just southwest of Cabo San Lucas a few days later.  Then, working with the ridge over the four corners, will bring deep-layer moisture and upper dynamics into the region through mid-month.

As always, stick to your weather service here at Alpha Weather Analysis for further updates.  During the day before and morning of the events the alerts go out.  Our models will continue to run 24/7 to bring you the most accurate micro-climate monsoon forecasts known, and if you are new, buckle up, because they are extremely detailed by location within the forecast area.