As stated in the previous updates, the second week of the month is when we would see the monsoon pattern leak into our forecast region.

This will will be driven by the nominal four corners ridge and an easterly wave to the south over Baja, Mexico.  Wedged between the two will be Arizona and California, and both will drive storms into the region.  Not only will the mountains and deserts see them, but upper support with this type of pattern means the valley, basins, and coasts will see them, so expect the metros of San Diego, Orange, Inland Empire, Los Angeles, Ventura, Bakersfield, and Santa Barbara to get this activity.

I will have a more detailed outlook sometime the first week of July.  Till then, my forecast will stand in rising confidence.

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